Understanding Nigeria's Ongoing Security Crisis

It is becoming clearer that Nigeria's insecurity is organized and supported by people with names, addresses, and connections in high places. The problem is not just about the government not responding enough, even though there are major gaps. These gaps are real but are only symptoms of a bigger issue. The real issue is organized predation that operates under the cover of institutions, political favors, and the silence of those who gain from the chaos.

The bandits in Zamfara, Sokoto, Katsina, and Kebbi do not hide in caves with bows made from tree bark. They travel in large groups, in vehicles, and have knowledge that they shouldn’t have about military movements and deployment. They negotiate ransoms through middlemen who use phones, have bank accounts, and are part of the traceable world. They are not invisible; they are protected.

The terrorists in the North-East do not create their weapons from thin air. There are supply chains and financiers. Men in respectable clothes, who sit in boardrooms and legislative chambers, support them while attending state funerals and prayer breakfasts. Sure, some self-sponsored groups exist, but the main terrorists in Nigeria do not operate alone. They have sponsors who have names, titles, and a history of acting without fear.

The Question That Keeps Coming Up

We must ask plainly, with the urgency of people whose loved ones are in danger. Why has President Bola Ahmed Tinubu not acted against these sponsors with the full power of the state? Why does the Nigerian State, with its military, intelligence, and authority, always stop short of a decisive action? Why does it seem that the predators know the hunters will not follow them to their hideouts? This question should not embarrass our democracy. It is a patriotic question. If the state cannot protect its citizens fiercely enough to make crime too costly, then the social contract is under serious strain.

President Tinubu is not a fearful person. His career shows he knows how to use strategic force effectively. He guided Lagos State through many dangerous political situations. He faced intimidation from the federal government during his own tough times and stood firm. He understands power well, its use, and its cost. The issue is not about his bravery but about his will and the complicated ties within the elite circle.

This is why effective action against the insecurity problem is lacking, even with brave military efforts. To truly end this issue, we must target the sponsors of terrorism, not just those they recruit. Until we do this, the government will keep dealing with symptoms instead of the real problem.

Are They Stronger Than the State?

The uncomfortable truth is that in certain areas, these non-state actors seem to operate as if they are stronger than the state. They do not have more firepower than the Nigerian Army; they do not have better intelligence than our security agencies. But power is not just military; it is about relationships. The connections that support these actors do not only reach downwards but also upwards into political finance and ethnic networks. This is the troubling reality of Nigeria's governance crisis: the state and non-state actors are not always opposites. Sometimes, they work together, sharing the same interests.

The Business of Disorder

In Nigeria, insecurity is not just a problem to solve. It is a resource to manage, a tool to use, an industry to maintain. It brings in money through ransoms, extortion, and illegal activities funneled into real estate and political funding. It suppresses voter turnout in specific communities, with predictable results for those who set it up. It becomes a bargaining chip among the elite, where the ability to use violence becomes a form of power. And it distracts the public from seeking accountability, making them less likely to ask who is profiting and how.

This is why effective action against insecurity remains elusive. To truly dismantle this system, we must go after the sponsors, not just the local criminals. Until this happens, the government will keep treating symptoms instead of the real issue.

What the President Needs to Do

Let no one sugarcoat what it takes to truly address Nigeria's insecurity. It requires political courage and a strong will. This means risking relationships with powerful allies, being ready to face opposition from those who once supported him. It means following the money with the determination of an investigator. And that money leads to people with influence who can make life difficult for anyone who tries to change things.

President Tinubu’s tough economic reforms are challenging but show ambition. History may judge them favorably. But we cannot rebuild an economy on a foundation of widespread insecurity. Investors will not come where there is violence. The middle class won’t grow when daily life feels like a survival challenge. Children cannot thrive when parents fear for their safety on the way to school. Basic security is essential for economic progress.

This also means changing how security agencies work, where some officers may rely on criminal networks to survive. It requires confronting the informal economies in the North-West, where legitimate businesses and banditry are closely linked. Separating them needs more than just military force; it needs political will, economic alternatives, and community involvement.

Above all, it needs what Nigerian leaders often avoid: clear accountability. We need to name the sponsors and hold them accountable in courts that the public can follow. The sentences should be tough, and the message should be clear.

History Is Watching

Tinubu's economic reforms are difficult but aim for change. History may look back on them positively. But we cannot expect to build an economy on insecurity. Investors will not come where there is chaos. The middle class cannot grow where daily life is dangerous, and parents cannot send their kids to school without fear. Basic security is the foundation for economic growth.

The non-state actors and their backers terrorizing Nigeria think that their ties and fear of losing power will keep them safe from punishment. They are betting that their business of insecurity will continue without interruption. This gamble must be made to fail.