US Tariff on Nigerian Imports May Not Have Big Effects

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has said the United States' decision to impose a 12.5 percent tariff on imports from Nigeria is unlikely to greatly affect Nigeria's economy.

The think tank shared this information in a statement by its CEO, Muda Yusuf, on Sunday. He pointed out that Nigeria's petroleum exports are mostly tariff-exempt and that a small portion of Nigerian exports go to the US.

On Friday, the US announced its plan to put a 12.5 percent tariff on imports from Nigeria.

The US government said this decision is part of new trade measures targeting countries that do not stop the importation of goods made with forced labor.

CPPE explained that this tariff is part of a larger change in US policy aimed at protecting local industries and boosting manufacturing competitiveness.

According to the think tank, this new tariff is a continuation of the reciprocal tariff policy introduced by former US President Donald Trump, even though it is now under a different legal framework.

"CPPE's assessment is that the new tariff regime represents a continuation of the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff policy, but under a different legal framework.

"After the courts invalidated the previous reciprocal tariffs, the current measures seem to have been revised under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act, using claims about forced labor as the legal basis for their implementation," CPPE said.

The organization added that even with the change in legal basis, the goal is still to protect US industries, boost American manufacturing, and support US trade and economic interests.

Impact on Nigeria

CPPE said the direct economic effects for Nigeria would be limited because most of Nigeria's exports to the US are petroleum products, which are exempt from these tariffs.

"Nigeria's exports to the United States are mainly crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and other petroleum products, which make up over 80 percent of Nigeria's exports to the US.

"These products are excluded from the tariff measures, so most of Nigeria's exports remain unaffected," the agency stated.

The think tank also mentioned that the United States is not Nigeria's biggest export market. Nigeria's trade data from the first quarter of 2026 shows that exports to the US were only 5.56 percent of total exports, valued at about N21.6 trillion.

In comparison, India accounted for 13.09 percent of Nigeria's exports during that time, followed by France with 9.29 percent, the Netherlands at 9.22 percent, and Spain at 7.68 percent, making the US Nigeria's fifth-largest export market.

According to CPPE, these trade patterns lessen Nigeria's exposure to the new tariffs. The think tank noted that the tariffs will only have small effects on Nigeria's export earnings, foreign exchange receipts, and overall economy.

"While some non-oil exporters, especially in agriculture and manufacturing, may face lower competitiveness in the US market, the overall effects on Nigeria's export earnings, foreign exchange, and economy are expected to be small," the body stated.

The group also pointed out that this situation shows a wider trend in global trade toward protectionism and a stronger use of trade policies to support domestic economic goals.

Solution

CPPE urged Nigeria to speed up export diversification, enhance manufacturing competitiveness, increase domestic value addition, and take full advantage of the African Continental Free Trade Area.

It also recommended that the government improve labor standards, boost supply chain transparency, and communicate with the United States through diplomatic and trade channels to lessen the impact of these measures on affected exporters.

CPPE mentioned that Nigeria's bigger challenge is dealing with a more fragmented and protectionist global trading system, not just the immediate issues with exports.

"Overall, while the new US tariffs have caused understandable concern, their direct economic effects on Nigeria should not be exaggerated.

"The bigger challenge is not just the immediate loss of export chances, but managing an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment," the think tank said.