Nigeria's Solar Growth Leaves National Grid Behind

Nigeria has become the fastest-growing market for small solar systems in sub-Saharan Africa. But low investment in big renewable energy projects means the country cannot turn this growth into better electricity supply.

These are the main points from a new report released by BloombergNEF on Wednesday. The report, called "Sub-Saharan Africa Renewable Energy Market Outlook", says Nigeria will lead the region in small solar additions until 2035. In contrast, South Africa will stay ahead in large renewable energy projects.

The report shows that African countries are taking different paths in energy. Nigeria's growth mainly comes from households and businesses that are leaving the unreliable national grid for rooftop solar and battery systems.

The report's findings come from studying 16 markets in sub-Saharan Africa. These markets were chosen based on BNEF's analysis of utility-scale project plans and import data to estimate small-scale needs.

It said that among the region's top five clean energy technology importers since 2025, South Africa, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Zambia, and Kenya, only South Africa, DRC, and Zambia have significant utility-scale project plans.

Nigeria and Kenya are seeing growth from small-scale demand, but Kenya’s utility-scale investment may recover if government auction plans move forward.

The report explained that utility-scale investment is developing slowly. In the last year, national utilities and companies signed Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) in 14 out of the 16 studied markets.

The African countries included in the study are South Africa, Nigeria, DRC, Zambia, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal, Ghana, Namibia, Ivory Coast, Botswana, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Uganda, Angola, and Malawi.

Nigeria Leads Off-Grid Solar Growth

BloombergNEF says Nigeria already has about 20 gigawatts (GW) of installed electricity capacity, mainly from gas. But solar growth is happening almost entirely outside the national grid.

The report estimates that Nigeria added 3.1 GW of small-scale solar capacity in 2024 and 2025. This brings the total installed capacity to about 6 GW.

BloombergNEF predicts that cumulative solar capacity could hit 87 GW by 2035. This is based on annual additions growing from 2.4 GW in 2026 to 7.8 GW in 2030 and 16.2 GW in 2035.

The increase in solar capacity is due to worsening electricity shortages, rising diesel and petrol prices, and the need for stable power among homes and businesses.

"Small-scale solar and storage additions are a key driver of growth across sub-Saharan Africa," the report said. It also mentioned that this trend is especially strong in Nigeria, where many are moving from backup petrol generators to solar-plus-storage.

BloombergNEF noted that Nigeria's situation is similar to Pakistan, where people are increasingly using rooftop solar to make up for poor grid supply.

The report's findings match what is happening in both rural and urban areas in Nigeria. In recent years, many households and businesses have adopted solar technology due to poor power supply and high fuel costs.

Grid-Scale Projects Remain Limited

Despite the fast growth in small-scale solar, BloombergNEF said Nigeria's utility-scale renewable energy market is mostly stagnant.

The report pointed out that only two major grid-connected solar projects were completed between 2020 and 2025. These are the 70 MW Zungeru hydropower-linked solar project and the 10 MW Kumbotso solar plant, Nigeria’s first grid-connected solar facility.

Unlike South Africa, which uses competitive procurement programmes for renewable energy projects, Nigeria has depended on isolated projects. This makes it hard to attract big private investments.

BloombergNEF said there is little clarity about future utility-scale procurement. This situation makes it tough for developers to plan long-term investments.

"These projects were developed sporadically rather than through scalable auction schemes, and there is little clarity on the timing of future tenders," the report stated.

South Africa Widens the Gap

While Nigeria leads in small-scale solar, South Africa continues to be the top country for large renewable energy investments.

BloombergNEF estimates that South Africa had 67 GW of installed electricity capacity in 2025. It expects renewable energy additions to grow through government procurement and increasing corporate power purchase agreements.

The report predicts South Africa will add an average of 2 GW of renewable energy each year from 2020 to 2025, increasing to 4.67 GW annually from 2025 to 2030.

Notably, about 1.7 GW of South Africa’s expected 2.3 GW of utility-scale renewable additions in 2026 will come from corporate electricity buyers, not government auctions.

BloombergNEF argues that Nigeria's main issue is not the demand for solar technology but the lack of a clear procurement framework for large renewable energy projects.

The report noted that utility-scale investment in sub-Saharan Africa mainly happens in countries with competitive auctions or clear power purchase agreement frameworks. Without reforms to Nigeria’s electricity procurement system, investment will likely stay focused on off-grid and mini-grid solutions instead of large renewable plants that can strengthen the national grid.

Imports Highlight Growing Demand

The report also ranked Nigeria as one of the largest clean energy equipment importers in sub-Saharan Africa.

Between 2025 and April 2026, Nigeria imported about 2,370 MW worth of clean energy equipment. This is second only to South Africa’s 5,416 MW. This shows Nigeria's growing demand for solar panels, batteries, and related technologies.

But despite these strong import numbers, BloombergNEF found that Nigeria had almost no utility-scale renewable energy capacity financed during the same period. This shows a gap between rising consumer demand and investment in large electricity projects.

Across sub-Saharan Africa, BloombergNEF estimates that 13 GW of solar, wind, and battery capacity was installed in 2025. The market is expected to more than double to 29 GW by 2030.

The report found that economic reasons, not climate policies, are pushing households and businesses to adopt renewable energy. They are replacing costly diesel and petrol generators with solar systems and storage.

For Nigeria, BloombergNEF concludes that the country is making progress in clean energy. But unless policymakers set up a clear plan for utility-scale renewable projects, the solar boom might keep missing the national grid, limiting its overall impact on electricity supply.