Understanding the Political Dynamics of Obi, Wike, and Tinubu

In 2023, Peter Obi had something Nyesom Wike would have loved to have. Obi had a nationwide emotional following.

The Obidient movement gave Obi access to:

• millions of young Nigerians;
• social media activists;
• professionals;
• Nigerians abroad;
• entrepreneurs;
• Christian groups;
• voters seeking change;
• unhappy APC and PDP voters.

Wike had something different. He had a network of politicians and political operatives. Combine these two assets and you get a strong political group. Obi’s mass support plus Wike’s political machinery could have been powerful.

But that combination never happened.

So, it is fair to ask if Obi’s biggest loss was not just missing out on winning the presidential election. I think a bigger loss was his failure to take advantage of the strong support and goodwill he had from Nigerians. He could not build on the political capital he gained during the campaign. Meanwhile, Wike is stepping into that gap and doing what Obi should have done.

Comparing Popularity and Political Strategy

The key lesson from Nigeria's current political scene is that there are at least four levels of political power right now.

Level 1, Personal popularity
People like the candidate. This is Obi's biggest strength.

Level 2, Movement
Those supporters gather around shared political goals. Obi is also trying to do something in this area.

Level 3, Political Machinery
The movement builds:

• ward structures;
• local leaders;
• candidates;
• fund-raising;
• voter registration;
• polling unit organization;
• legal teams;
• communication systems;
• policy institutions.

Wike’s strengths are here. He has developed a new Rainbow Coalition.

Level 4, Governing Coalition
The organization can negotiate with:

• governors;
• lawmakers;
• traditional leaders;
• business groups;
• regional blocs;
• religious organizations;
• other political parties.

Tinubu has the strongest asset here, although Wike has some of these connections too. But Tinubu has perfected this skill more than others.

To sum up the strengths of our three political figures:

• Obi showed impressive strength at Level 1 and some at Level 2.
• Wike is stronger in Levels 3 and 4.
• Tinubu has built all four levels over many years.

Three Politicians, Three Approaches

We can describe the three politicians using three different approaches:

Peter Obi

1. Mass popular support
2. Personality-driven movement

Nyesom Wike

1. Political relationships and bargaining power
2. Cross-party coalitions

Bola Tinubu

1. Long-term institutional network
2. Political machine and coalition

This is not a ranking.

It simply shows different types of political strengths.

Obi had a large following and goodwill from many Nigerians. By the end of the 2023 elections, he had what he could have turned into a similar structure as Wike's Rainbow Coalition. Unfortunately, he missed that chance.

On the flip side, Wike faced significant challenges. His time as governor had just ended, making him seem politically unemployed. His successor soon turned against him, risking his political base. His party also pushed him out. Plus, his G5 group suffered losses, with only Seyi Makinde still on his side.

Despite these challenges, Wike managed to revive his political fortunes. Now, even the powerful APC governors fear him and his Rainbow Coalition. This is true political smarts. Obi had a better chance to create such a strong political influence, but Wike did it.

In the end, Tinubu is the biggest winner here. He benefited because Obi did not know how to maximize his popularity. So, 2027 looks promising for Tinubu. He also gained from Wike’s skills and the support of his Rainbow Coalition. Meanwhile, many other parties are joining APC. Now, 31 out of 36 state governors are in Tinubu's party.

Politics is not for the faint-hearted, whether in Nigeria or elsewhere. You must know the rules and play the game wisely.

Mass popular enthusiasm, personality-driven movements, political relationships and bargaining power, cross-party coalitions, long-term networks, political machines, and coalitions.

These are key elements for success in the world of politics. To win in this game, you must understand and master these elements at the right times.

In my next article, I will discuss how Wike and Obi can build their political futures based on their past experiences.