World Bank predicts 23% rise in global commodity prices by 2026

Global commodity prices are set to increase by 23 percent in 2026. This rise is due to growing tensions in the Middle East, falling oil reserves, and disruptions in food supplies.

This information comes from the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, which was released on Wednesday.

The report warns that higher energy and food prices might worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth. This is especially true for vulnerable countries.

The report predicts energy prices will go up by 32 percent in 2026. This marks a reversal after three straight years of decline. Prices are expected to stabilize in 2027.

Brent crude oil is projected to average 91 dollars per barrel in 2026. This is an increase from 69 dollars in 2025, and it is expected to drop to 79 dollars per barrel in 2027.

Food commodity prices are also likely to rise by about 10 percent in 2026 and then another seven percent in 2027. This totals an 18 percent increase.

The report links this price rise to disruptions in grain shipments caused by the Middle East conflict and the threat of El Niño affecting agricultural harvests. Higher fuel and fertilizer costs are also contributing factors.

The report suggests that overall commodity prices could drop by seven percent in 2027 if there are no major escalations in conflicts impacting global supplies.

The World Bank cautioned that the situation could worsen if the Middle East conflict intensifies or if damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure continues.

Higher-than-expected energy prices, attacks on grain shipments in the Black Sea, and a strong El Niño could lead to a food crisis. This could push more people into extreme poverty.

“Under an adverse scenario in which the risks materialize simultaneously, Brent crude could average 105 dollars per barrel in 2027, while food commodity prices could rise 12 percent above the baseline forecast, exceeding their 2022 levels,” the report states.

It also predicted that global oil supply would drop by 5.2 percent in 2026. This would be the largest decline in over 40 years, aside from the 2020 global recession.

Oil consumption is expected to decrease by 2.5 percent. This marks the third-largest annual drop on record after 2020 and 1980.

The report noted that high prices and supply shortages are limiting demand. Electrification is also leading to lower oil consumption, particularly in China.

“Despite the projected decline in consumption, oil production is expected to remain below demand. This could force further withdrawals from inventories, making global markets more vulnerable to supply disruptions,” it stated.

Fertilizer prices are expected to rise by 14 percent in 2026. This follows an early-year surge in urea prices, which has since eased. Prices are anticipated to return to their 2025 levels in 2027.

Metal prices are projected to increase by 25 percent in 2026. Aluminium, copper, and tin are expected to reach record highs.

“This increase reflects strong demand from investments in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and data centers, along with supply disruptions. Metal prices are expected to drop by three percent in 2027,” the report noted.

Precious metal prices are forecast to rise by 40 percent in 2026. This is due to demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty.

“Although prices are expected to moderate in 2027, they are projected to remain more than three times their average level between 2015 and 2019,” it added.

Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist, reacted to the outlook. He said higher energy costs and trade disruptions are increasing prices for many commodities.

“This is threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth. The priority must be to protect the poorest people and support low-income countries already struggling with heavy debt burdens,” Kose said.

He mentioned that the World Bank Group has made between $50 billion and $60 billion available through existing financing tools. This includes $25 billion in pre-arranged financing to help countries deal with rising prices.

Kose stated that this financing could support social safety nets for vulnerable populations. It could also strengthen governments’ fiscal capacity and offer working capital and liquidity support for businesses and farms.

He added that the institution has made significant progress in speeding up its ability to mobilize private capital alongside its own financing and expertise. Kose said the bank is ready to invest in the next generation of young people in developing countries, especially by improving job creation conditions.