Atiku Faces New Challenge Ahead of 2027 Election

Atiku Abubakar has been in the race for Nigeria's presidency for over twenty years. Now, his latest bid for the presidency is facing a serious challenge. This issue goes beyond just winning votes and forming political alliances.

Atiku now has to deal with a bigger question: can the political party he is counting on to run against President Bola Tinubu stay relevant and strong enough to compete in the elections?

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) was seen as a gathering point for key opposition figures ahead of the 2027 elections. However, it is now in a leadership crisis after a Federal High Court ruling that cancelled the leadership of former Senate President David Mark.

With just 68 days until the presidential election on January 16, 2027, the uncertainty around the ADC raises doubts. Can the party sort out its internal issues, confirm its candidates, and run an effective campaign before the elections?

This situation is crucial because many hoped the ADC would be the backbone for a united front against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Instead, the party is struggling to determine who is in charge and if the decisions made by its disputed leaders are valid.

More importantly, the court ruling also invalidated decisions made by the previous leadership, including Atiku's selection as the party's presidential candidate. The ruling, given by Peter Lifu on November 5, came after a challenge by Nafiu Gombe, a former deputy national chairman of the ADC. Gombe questioned how Mark and other leaders took control of the party.

Atiku rejected the ruling, calling it an attempt to disrupt what he claims is a national movement. He issued a statement through his campaign, questioning the timing of the judgement, which came soon after he launched his campaign in Sokoto. He alleged that it was part of a plot to weaken his support in the North and pledged to appeal the ruling.

Even though the ADC is trying to contest the ruling, this situation puts Atiku in a tough spot. His ambitions now depend on a legal fight over whether the party's leadership and its decisions are valid.

This crisis also raises bigger questions about how well the opposition is preparing for the 2027 elections. Can a coalition formed to take on the ruling party maintain internal stability and proper organization for a national campaign?

One key point from the recent ruling is that it questions the legal basis of the Mark-led leadership, despite a previous court decision that Atiku's camp says had already settled the issue. Atiku argues that the ruling by Lifu contradicts an earlier ruling by Justice Musa Liman on July 2.

That earlier case was brought by Leke Abejide, a member of the House of Representatives, who also challenged the emergence of Mark and Rauf Aregbesola as leader and secretary of the party. Atiku said Justice Liman dismissed the challenge after looking at issues like jurisdiction and the plaintiff's standing.

This raises an important legal question: If a court had already looked at the Mark-led leadership, why was another case about the same issue allowed? What is different between the two rulings?

This difference matters because two cases on the same issue may not raise the same legal questions. Also, a ruling in one case does not automatically solve every related issue.

In an interview with PREMIUM TIMES, Paul Ibe, Atiku’s spokesperson, said the ruling will not stop Atiku from running. He said the campaign is continuing and has already challenged the judgement in court. "The election cannot be affected in any shape or form," Ibe said. "As you and I speak, Atiku will be on the ballot on January 16, 2027. So will all the other candidates who won elections in the ADC primary under the leadership of Senator David Mark."

Ibe added that the campaign has appealed the ruling and requested a stay of execution. He called the court's decision an attempt to weaken the opposition before the election and said they would use every legal avenue to overturn it.

Ibe also accused the APC of using its power to weaken the opposition. He said the ruling party does not want a competitive election, pointing out its control over many state governments and its strong presence in the National Assembly. He also said the police, the judiciary, and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) were failing to ensure fair elections.

He linked the timing of the judgement to the ADC's recent campaign activities, including its kickoff in Sokoto, claiming that the ruling party is nervous about the opposition's growing influence. "This is clearly an agenda. The APC does not want a contest," Ibe said, adding that they are "so scared, especially with what happened in Sokoto."

He warned that ongoing political tension and the belief that the electoral process is being undermined could damage public trust in democracy. He called on the international community to pressure the Nigerian government to ensure a free and fair election.

Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), also reacted to the ruling. He called it "unsettling and surprising," arguing that the timing has created uncertainty for political parties and candidates as the election approaches. He also accused the APC of creating instability within opposition parties.

On the other hand, Aviation Minister Festus Keyamo welcomed the court's decision. He said the law should be based on facts and evidence, not political feelings. He accused the Mark-led faction of taking control of the ADC without following proper procedures and insisted the party is still intact despite the ruling.

The ADC’s situation is significant because it was meant to be a political home for opposition figures who wanted to avoid a split challenge to Tinubu. The coalition brought together politicians from various backgrounds, including Atiku, Mark, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi, and former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola.

They came together in the ADC to create a unified front against the ruling APC. This arrangement aimed to solve one of the main problems faced by the opposition in the 2023 elections: the inability of key candidates to unite behind a single candidate.

But the recent dispute shows that while a coalition can attract influential politicians and capture media attention, its ability to compete in elections relies on strong leadership, fair internal processes, and the ability to function without ongoing disputes.

Instead of focusing solely on campaigning against the Tinubu administration, the ADC now has to defend the legitimacy of the leadership that organized its activities and selected its candidates. This adds extra pressure on a coalition still trying to solidify its structure.

The implications of this ruling go beyond the presidential election. It has also affected the nominations of other ADC candidates for 2027, raising concerns about the status of politicians looking to run under the party's banner.

INEC is also caught up in this dispute. Its role is crucial because the outcome of the legal battles could determine which leadership it recognizes and whether the party's nominations remain valid.

After the judgement, INEC said it had not yet received the official copy of the court's decision and would review it before making any decisions. The ADC then informed INEC that it had filed an appeal and requested a stay of execution.

However, simply filing an appeal does not automatically stop the enforcement of a court judgement. The application for a stay must be considered by the appropriate court. The ADC is requesting that INEC hold off on any actions while the appeal is ongoing. Still, the commission must follow valid court orders and cannot ignore a judgement just because one party is unhappy with it.

The final decision will impact the party's preparations and the status of its candidates. For Atiku, this ADC crisis adds another layer of complexity to his long-running political ambition.

Atiku, who served as President Olusegun Obasanjo's deputy from 1999 to 2007, has been a major figure in Nigeria's opposition politics. He has run for president in 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2023, finishing second to Tinubu last time.

His choice to pursue the 2027 elections through the ADC is part of a broader effort to unite opposition forces. Atiku's claim that he will remain in the race may reassure supporters, but it does not solve the legal issues surrounding his nomination. Also, the ADC's decision to appeal does not automatically restore Mark's leadership or validate the primary that made Atiku the candidate.

The party must first get the necessary legal approvals or a favorable decision from the appellate court. If the ruling stays in place, it could affect not just Atiku's personal ambitions but also the broader opposition coalition that chose the ADC as its platform.

This dispute could also test the commitment of the politicians who joined the party, especially if the leadership issue remains unresolved and time is tight before the elections.

For the APC, this situation comes as Tinubu's re-election campaign is already in motion. For the opposition, the key worry is whether their chosen platform can settle its internal problems before the competition heats up.

Even if the party gets a favorable ruling from the appellate court, it will still have to address the divisions that led to this dispute and build trust in its internal processes. Atiku’s challenge is not just to stay on the ballot. It is to run a presidential campaign through a party whose leadership and decisions are currently being questioned.