On Saturday, 2,339,233 eligible voters will head out across 332 wards in 30 local government areas of Osun State. They will vote to elect a new governor, according to the final voter register from INEC.
These voters, spread across 3,763 polling units, have the option to re-elect the current governor, Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party (AP), or select another candidate from the All Progressives Congress (APC), the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), and 10 other parties.
In total, 14 political parties are taking part in the election.
Though it seems like a two-horse race between Mr Adeleke and Bola Oyebamiji of the APC, there is a third candidate: the ADC’s flagbearer. Many see the ADC as a significant player in the state because of its prominent backer, Rauf Aregbesola. He was governor from 2010 to 2018, first with the defunct ACN and then with the APC, which he helped establish in 2013.
Mr Aregbesola was a strong supporter of the APC in Osun State until a fierce power struggle with his successor, Gboyega Oyetola, and his former mentor, President Bola Tinubu, led him to leave the party in July 2025. He then became the national secretary of the ADC. Aregbesola claims he and his supporters were pushed out of the APC in the state.
Political analysts believe the rift between Aregbesola and Oyetola was a key reason for Oyetola's defeat in the 2022 gubernatorial election to Mr Adeleke of the PDP, now of the AP.
They argue that if Aregbesola and Oyetola had reconciled before the election, it would have been hard for the PDP to take the governorship from the APC.
The 2026 election will test Aregbesola’s influence in Osun State and the ADC’s strength ahead of the 2027 general elections. There will not be any major elections in 2026 to assess the party’s strength before the general elections.
The ADC’s performance in the recent Ekiti governorship election was disappointing. Despite campaigns by party leaders like Aregbesola, David Mark, and Atiku Abubakar for their candidate, Dare Bejide, he only received 12,872 votes. He came in third behind the PDP’s Oluwole Oluyede and the APC’s Abiodun Oyebanji, who won with 319,224 votes, according to INEC.
Before the Ekiti election, the ADC did not win any of the bye-elections held by INEC in August 2025. The results showed the APC won 12 constituencies, APGA won 2, PDP won 1, and NNPP won 1. The ADC did not win any.
Some observers say the ADC's poor performance is due to its relative newness. The party has only recently gained support from some opposition groups to challenge the APC-led government.
Despite emerging from a long break, some felt the ADC should have done better in the elections held so far in 2026 and should be gaining political strength.
But the results from the bye-elections show the party has yet to build the momentum needed before 2027. The party did not win any of the bye-elections in June across six states, including the Dawakin Kudu/Warawa Federal Constituency bye-election in Kano State, which the APC won.
In February, the ADC also struggled in the FCT Area Council election. The APC won five of the six area councils, while the PDP secured Gwagwalada, leaving the ADC with nothing.
The ADC’s lackluster performance in the 2025/2026 elections makes the Osun election a crucial test for its strength. It must prove it can compete for power to gain the trust of voters.
Before the election, many are asking: Can Mr Aregbesola deliver Osun State to the ADC?
Another question is whether the ADC has enough recognition to win the important seat in the state.
Most people think it will be very difficult for Aregbesola to deliver the state to the ADC. His political strength seems to have faded, despite his claims that he still has the support of voters in Osun.
For the second question, the ADC in Osun is Aregbesola, and Aregbesola is the ADC. What happens to one affects the other. For now, they are closely linked.
Some local commentators believe Aregbesola’s reduced political influence in the state is tied to his split from the 'progressive family' and from Tinubu, with whom he had been close for over three decades. The APC claims to represent the progressive family in the state.
Despite Aregbesola’s perceived decline in political power, the ADC lacks the strong support, organization, appeal, and financial strength that parties like AP and APC have in the state. These factors are key in determining election wins or losses.
The ADC's choice of candidate, Najeem Salaam, has also caused issues for the party. Moshood Adeoti, a grassroots politician with support across the state, was seen as Aregbesola’s preferred choice. But the ticket went to Salaam, a former speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly.
Adeoti, known as 'Sheu', has distanced himself from the ADC and Aregbesola after losing the APC ticket to Oyetola in the 2022 governorship election. He has since joined the SDP after falling out with Oyetola.
Salaam, also from Ejigbo in Osun West, the same district as Governor Adeleke, faces a tough challenge. Adeleke is believed to have strong local support due to his family’s political history in Ede, his hometown. It will be hard for Salaam and the ADC to beat Adeleke in this election. Voters in Osun East and Central are likely to prefer Adeleke, who can serve another four years if re-elected, over Salaam, who could only serve two terms of eight years if he wins.
Still, Aregbesola’s loyal supporters across the state believe it would be foolish for the AP and APC to ignore his influence in a state he governed for eight years. He has a grassroots network ready to support him.
For Aregbesola, the election on August 15 is another chance to show his critics that he is still a political force in Osun State.
Aregbesola is not afraid to showcase his political background and that of the ADC. "We are the main, principal and only political force in Osun and in Nigeria," he said at a rally.
Winning the election and getting Salaam into the Bola Ige House in Osogbo, the state capital, would silence his critics. A poor performance could hurt his political future in a state he once led.
The ADC also faces a challenge: win Osun and show it is ready to compete against the APC nationally in 2027. A loss could end its chances.
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