Osun Gears Up for Another Political Showdown

Osun State is known for its controversies that often overshadow its small size. It ranks 26th in Nigeria for voter population and is last in the Southwest.

Since 2010, when Rauf Aregbesola of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) overthrew Olagunsoye Oyinlola of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) via court ruling, Osun has seen its share of political drama. This includes the “inconclusive election” that brought Gboyega Oyetola to power eight years later and Ademola Adeleke's comeback. Osun has become one of Nigeria’s key political battlegrounds.

This Saturday, Governor Adeleke will try to win reelection with the Accord Party (AP). Fourteen other parties are also on the ballot. The All Progressives Congress (APC) is fielding Bola Oyebamiji as its candidate, while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has Najeem Salam. Even with calls for a peaceful and fair election, it seems major parties view this race as a battle.

No Need for Violence

According to Amnesty International, at least 29 people have died in 73 violent incidents linked to the elections in Osun as of Tuesday. A viral video surfaced this week showing Senator Francis Fadahunsi of the APC openly urging his supporters to “kill” members of the governor’s party.

Afrobeats star Davido took to X to ask US President Donald Trump for help in preventing election violence, later claiming, “Trump’s people had reached out to him.” Reports say the APC’s 276-member National Campaign Council, led by Imo Governor Hope Uzodimma, has arrived in Osogbo to prepare for Saturday's election. The atmosphere in Osun feels tense, like a war zone.

It’s not just the arrival of party leaders that has made Osun feel like a battlefield. A bank source shared that branches in Lagos could not pay out more than N5 million in cash. Politicians are raiding banks, and Osun is struggling with a lack of cash, raising concerns that those who survive the violence may also face financial issues.

A Bitter Rivalry

What is causing the tension in Osun or this election? It is a grudge match. This election may be one of the fiercest rivalries since Godwin Obaseki faced Adams Oshiomhole six years ago, even without a godfather influence.

Oyetola beat Adeleke in the 2018 supplementary elections, but many believe Adeleke was robbed of victory due to the “inconclusive election” and subsequent polls that favoured Oyetola. Adeleke never accepted defeat. He demonstrated this in the 2022 rematch when he defeated Oyetola by 28,344 votes, a stark contrast to the 482 votes he lost by in 2018.

The Legacy of Oyetola

To be fair, Oyetola faced a tough legacy. His predecessor, Rauf Aregbesola, had big plans like paving roads, while voters wanted timely payment of salaries, pensions, and enough funds for cooperative society obligations.

The costs of Aregbesola’s many programs, plus changes to school dress codes, put a strain on Osun’s finances. By the time Aregbesola left, Osun was worn out from the APC years. This exhaustion affected Oyetola during his first term, along with dwindling resources.

Election Dynamics

Although Oyetola is not on the ballot on August 15, he still influences the race. The same goes for Aregbesola, who is trying to show he still matters in Osun politics. Oyetola wants to get back at Adeleke. His candidate, Oyebamiji, has a background in finance but lacks experience in public service. He was finance commissioner under Aregbesola and later Oyetola, making it hard to distance himself from the troubled financial past.

Voters see Oyebamiji as a continuation of Oyetola and a part of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's influence, which complicates things. This connection reminds Osun voters of a past they want to leave behind, especially as the Federal Government's policies have left them struggling.

A fair election result on Saturday will reflect local opinions and also serve as a judgment on Tinubu’s national performance. This is a burden the APC candidate must carry.

Challenges for Adeleke

Adeleke has his own problems. He has done some good things since taking office. He promised to clear salary, gratuity, and pension backlogs, and he has kept his word even when other states struggled. He has also continued projects started by previous governments.

But Adeleke faces serious challenges. His attempt to join the ruling APC, which Oyetola reportedly blocked, and his offer to support Tinubu during the presidential election have not helped him. In a desperate move, he switched from PDP to the Accord Party.

Adeleke has had to deal with two local government structures: one loyal to Oyetola that receives federal funds due to a court ruling, and another aligned with the PDP from last year’s local government elections. Running a state without control over local governments is like driving a car with three wheels. This situation mirrors the conflict between Minister Nyesom Wike and Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara. In the meantime, the Road Transport Workers’ Union in Osun, a significant local political group, is under the control of APC enforcer M.C. Oluomo.

Political Maneuvering

A source informed me that the recent decision by the APC Federal Government to start renovating the Iwo-Ibadan Highway from Iwo, instead of Osogbo as planned, could be an attempt to win over the Oluwo in Iwo, a top voter stronghold.

Also, high-profile defections to the APC, ADC’s Salam from Ejigbo, and various pledges could put Adeleke in a tough position. It remains unclear if Adeleke will benefit from the large voter base in Ife, where Iyiola Omisore’s loyalty to the APC may cause issues for him. This could be easier for Adeleke if allegations of cronyism that favour his town and family do not resurface.

“It may all come down to this,” said my source. “In a close race, the incumbent has a better chance, but tight races also make rigging easier.”

Election Turnout

Despite its smaller voter size and the prevailing tension, Osun has maintained a voter turnout of over 40 percent in many elections, which is above the national average.

The political scene in Osun is heating up again. Hopefully, all parties, including the election management body, will refrain from contributing to the violence.