Three Years Later, Little Has Changed

What matters more? Three years of the Tinubu administration or the upcoming general election next year? Some might say this is a false choice. Are both not just different faces of Nigeria's journey? Looking back is important, but the focus now should be on the future. The Tinubu administration was supposed to lead Nigeria into an important era three years ago.

A former governor of Lagos State, known for his progressive ideas, was set to modernize the country. According to stories shared during his presidential campaign, he was going to break the hold of the "Hausa-Fulani oligarchy" over Nigeria. People weren’t expecting paradise, but they hoped for better management of resources and fairness in their distribution.

The campaign, however, played on Nigeria's ethnic divisions. While stirring these tensions was a mistake, the idea of using Lagos as a model for the whole country was more straightforward. In the early 1990s, the UAE created a plan focused on open trade, low taxes, deregulation, and good infrastructure. Because of this, the IMF says the UAE's non-oil economy grew by about 8 percent every year from 1995. Bola Ahmed Tinubu became Lagos State governor in 1999.

But Nigeria's federal structure means that state governments have limits on how much they can improve their economies. So what did Tinubu do in Lagos? Did he reform the bureaucracy to lower business costs? Did he reduce the burden on businesses from non-state actors? No. Instead, his government redirected resources from businesses and consumers to the state. His example was so powerful that raising internally generated revenue became the main goal for state governments at that time.

This push for more government money is what Mr. Tinubu has continued at the federal level. There is a focus on increasing government earnings, but not on what to do with that extra money. The question of how to achieve goals without harming democracy is crucial. How does a pro-democracy activist, who opposed the Abacha military regime, not see that some methods can hurt democracy? Achieving a good outcome does not justify every method. It is important to recognize what works and do it in a way that is ethical and acceptable.

Is everything legal also smart? This is a lesson from the Trump presidency in the US. The world has seen that the limits on US presidents were based on accepted norms, not laws. These norms were followed for the good of the people. Trump's narcissism and incompetence are significant issues. These are similar charges that the Abacha administration faced and are now directed at Tinubu. The struggle between effectiveness and legitimacy is a challenge that governments will always face. A government might know what needs to be done but may find it hard to act without damaging the institutions and values it should protect.

With an opposition that is not as strong, Mr. Tinubu is likely to win re-election next year. Based on this, some of his supporters have created a new story. They claim that his first term’s shortcomings were due to the need to satisfy various people and interests that helped him get into office in 2023. Now that he has paid off these debts, they believe his second term will be better for Nigeria and Nigerians.

But we have heard this story before from governments known for missing chances to improve the country.