Are There Really Over 103 Million Voters in Nigeria?

As Nigeria prepares for general elections in January and February 2027, Africa Confidential warns that turnout might drop even lower than the average 26.7% seen four years ago. Nigerian voters are among the least enthusiastic in the world. Out of more than 93.4 million registered voters, only 24.9 million votes were cast. This was an 8.03-point decline from the 2019 elections and marked the lowest voter turnout since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999.

Complaints about "voter apathy" are common in Nigeria's electoral discussions. The numbers back this up. In 1999, turnout was 52.3%. It officially grew to 69% in 2003 but has fallen since then to 57.5% in 2007, 53.7% in 2011, 43.7% in 2015, and 34.8% in 2019, before crashing to 26.7% in 2023.

These claims depend on trusting the numbers from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). This starts with believing in the electoral register used to judge turnout. If this register is faulty, then all calculations based on it are also wrong.

But the main issue with Nigeria’s elections isn't just about INEC's numbers. It's the lack of a trustworthy demographic management system to verify INEC’s claims.

The National Population Commission (NPoPC) says only 53% of births in Nigeria are registered, and just 10% of deaths are. This should concern everyone when considering the credibility of the electoral register.

Electoral rolls change over time. People move, relocate, and unfortunately, pass away. This is why a demographic management system is necessary. In Nigeria, such a system does not exist.

A voter register does not automatically update when someone dies. But a person should not remain on the register ten years after their death. In Nigeria, there’s no way to stop this.

These points explain the oddities in Nigeria’s voting numbers. First, they do not reflect broader demographic trends. For example, the dramatic drop in voter turnout contradicts both population growth and civic dissatisfaction.

In 1999, Nigeria's population was estimated at 115,766,000. Today, it is around 244 million. This means the population has more than doubled since 1999 by 128,234,000 or 110.77%.

Over the same time, the voting roll increased by 81.4%, even as life expectancy has risen by about nine years. If life expectancy is growing with the population and death rates are falling, then the voting population should grow faster than the overall population.

From 1999 to 2023, Nigeria's population grew by about 87%, but the voter register only increased by 36,530,063 or 63.05%. The gap between these two trends is significant.

In 1999, Nigeria had 57.94 million registered voters. This number rose by 2.88 million or 4.97% to 60.82 million in 2003 and then by just 750,000 or 1.23% to 61.57 million in 2007. By 2011, the number of registered voters jumped by over 12 million (20.5%) to 73.53 million, averaging nearly 5.12% yearly growth. Before that, it grew by 1.24% from 1999-2003 and 0.3% from 2003 to 2007.

By 2015, the number of registered voters fell to 68.83 million, a decrease of 4.7 million voters or 6.39%. This marked an annual decline of 1.6%. Yet, during this time, Nigeria’s population rose from about 162.9 million to 181.2 million, an increase of 15.174 million or 11.23% with a yearly growth rate of 2.8%.

These numbers do not easily explain themselves. Possible reasons for the gap between population growth and registered voters could include migration, problems within INEC, civic disengagement, or high costs to vote. But there are still concerning patterns that other factors do not easily explain.

As the Justice Uwais committee on electoral reform noted in its 2008 report, much of what was presented as electoral numbers in Nigeria before 2011 was dubious. For example, INEC does not have a breakdown of official results for the 2007 presidential elections, yet there are turnout figures for that election.

This leads to another issue: Nigeria’s voter register has always included invalid voters. The current register dates back to November 2010 when the Attahiru Jega-led INEC worked to create a credible register of voters. The Commission had limited time to verify raw data before the 2011 election.

When the Automatic Fingerprint Identification System (AFIS) completed its work on the 2011 register nearly four years later, INEC invalidated 4.7 million entries. This reduced the number of registered voters from 73.53 million in 2011 to 68.83 million in 2015, but those 4.7 million invalid entries were eligible to vote in 2011.

The biggest problem may be dead voters. That term is contradictory because dead people should not vote. In 2022, INEC stated it could not remove dead voters from the register because "the country does not have reliable data of births and deaths, and the Commission cannot arbitrarily remove names of those suspected to be deceased."

This situation has not improved. We have no clear idea of how many deceased individuals are among the 103.4 million on INEC’s current list. By not displaying the register as required by law, the Commission does not even try to dispel doubts about the accuracy of its register. Its reaction to non-compliance is one of indifference.

Nigeria’s voter register resembles the Hotel California: it is "programmed to receive," and for anyone listed, "you can check out any time you like but you can never leave." The effects of this on electoral integrity are alarming.

To illustrate this, Nigerian law allows only adults to vote. The World Bank estimates the country’s crude mortality rate at 11.64 per 1000. Using a baseline from 2011, that suggests about 34,748,845 deaths in the past 15 years.

But not all these deaths are adults. The mortality rate for children under five is 117 per 1000 live births. That equates to 700,000 to 855,000 child deaths each year. By 2025, that could mean about 12 million dead children since 2011.

The country also reported about 111,425 deaths among children aged 5-14 from 1990 to 2016. Based on a 2011 baseline, that’s another 1,671,375 deaths. Altogether, there could be as many as 13.67 million infant, child, and adolescent deaths since 2011.

Considering mortality rates for infants, children, and adolescents, there could be 18-20 million people who should be removed from the voter register since 2011. If we apply this to the 2023 register, there may be up to five million deceased individuals listed since the last election.

In its latest announcement, INEC claimed it recorded 10,772,421 new voters but did not address deaths or natural attrition.

In addition, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) reported that Nigeria has at least 3.7 million internally displaced people. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees counted up to 478,000 Nigerian refugees outside the country. Not all these individuals are adults eligible to vote.

INEC’s claim of 103.4 million voters is likely inflated. When you consider the numbers on INEC’s register and the fact that the baseline data dates back to 2011, there’s a strong chance that up to 25% of it could be deceased or invalid. This should change the way we look at voter apathy. But here’s the unique Nigerian twist: while our diaspora does not have a vote, we might have a diaspora in Heaven with a veto.