Osun 2026 Election: More Voters, Bigger Win for Adeleke and Other Findings

The 2026 Osun governorship election showed a surprising twist: more people voted, both main candidates got more votes, but the gap between them grew wider. Governor Ademola Adeleke from the Accord Party and Bola Oyebamiji from the All Progressives Congress (APC) faced off in this election.

A report by the Athena Election Observatory (AEO) reveals that Mr Adeleke's winning margin grew from 28,344 votes in 2022 to 66,252 votes in 2026. This is an increase of 133.7 percent.

These details come from AEO's comparison of the August 15 election based on results from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). They say this data gives a clear view of the results, though they are still working on more detailed polling-unit results.

Mr Adeleke, who ran for re-election in 2026, received 511,067 votes. He defeated APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji, who got 444,815 votes. This is a rise from the 403,371 votes Adeleke received in 2022 when he ran under the Peoples Democratic Party against the then governor Adegboyega Oyetola of APC.

Mr Oyebamiji, the closest challenger in 2026, also did better than his predecessor. The APC candidate improved from 375,027 votes in 2022 to 444,815 votes this time.

More Voters, Bigger Electorate

AEO's report shows that Osun's registered voters grew a lot between the two elections. Registered voters went up from 1,952,387 in 2022 to 2,339,544 in 2026. This is a 19.8 percent increase.

The number of accredited voters also rose by 22.2 percent, from 827,218 in 2022 to 1,010,684 in 2026. Total votes cast increased from 823,124 to 1,005,800.

But even with more voters, the percentage of accredited registered voters did not change much. The accreditation rate moved from 42.37 percent in 2022 to 43.20 percent in 2026, just 0.83 percentage points higher.

AEO noted that the increase in voters happened mainly because the electorate grew, not because more registered voters showed up. This bigger and more engaged electorate could affect how people try to influence votes.

The AEO explained that for anyone trying to buy votes, a larger and more active electorate makes it harder and more expensive to do so without getting caught.

Adeleke and APC Both Gain Votes

The results show that the 2026 election was more than just an incumbent beating an opposition. Mr Adeleke increased his vote count by 107,696 votes, going from 403,371 in 2022 to 511,067 in 2026. The APC also raised its votes by 69,788, moving from 375,027 in 2022 to 444,815 in 2026.

Despite this, Adeleke's share of valid votes went up from 50.13 percent to 51.90 percent. The APC's share dropped from 46.63 percent to 45.17 percent. The result shows a much wider gap. In 2022, Adeleke defeated Oyetola by 28,344 votes. This time, he beat Oyebamiji by 66,252 votes, a 133.7 percent increase in the winning margin.

These numbers suggest that while the APC is still strong in Osun, they could not gather enough support to win back the governorship.

Increase in Rejected Votes

The rise in participation came with more rejected ballots. According to AEO, rejected votes went up, but not as fast as valid votes. Valid votes increased from 804,450 to 985,079, a 22.5 percent rise. Rejected votes increased from 18,674 to 20,721, an 11 percent increase.

AEO did not link this increase to any specific reason. But it matters because over 20,000 votes were not counted as valid. Beyond just numbers, AEO emphasizes that political competition helps protect electoral integrity.

They argue that competitive elections require parties to have agents at polling units, know electoral rules, and track results independently.

The presence of party agents at polling units adds scrutiny. This allows them to compare their records with results announced at different stages. AEO describes organized political competition as an important guard for electoral integrity.

Technology in Election Process

The election tested INEC's electronic election tools, especially the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV). AEO said BVAS accreditation and IReV uploads are creating a better audit trail from polling units to final results.

But they warned that there are still weaknesses. They pointed out issues like upload delays and the need for better transparency about how results are transmitted.

AEO said gaps remain in the system. These include upload delays and how different records are reconciled. This means while technology has improved the election process, it does not guarantee everything will go perfectly.

AEO said they are not done with their assessment. They are moving from monitoring election night to a detailed post-election audit. This will include completing their polling-unit dataset and reconciling results through the levels of collation to INEC's final declaration.