Tinubu Will Lose Badly in 2027, Says Ex-Minister

A former Minister of Youth and Sports Development, Solomon Dalung, has said President Bola Tinubu will be "beaten woefully" in the 2027 presidential election. He believes the president has lost much of the northern support that helped him win in 2023.

Dalung, who worked under former President Muhammadu Buhari, said Tinubu's 8.7 million votes in the 2023 election were mainly due to Buhari's influence in the North. He thinks that with Buhari gone and the North feeling the effects of Tinubu's policies, the president might only keep about 3.7 million of those votes.

Dalung shared his thoughts during an interview on Channels Television’s Politics Today. He talked about the opposition and their chances in the upcoming 2027 presidential election. He said that the election outcome will depend on how well the Tinubu administration performs and the struggles faced by ordinary Nigerians.

The former minister, now part of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), accused the government of being reckless and acting without regard for citizens. He said the way the country is being managed has become a tool for the opposition.

“This administration in the history of Nigeria has been one of the governments that mismanaged the goodwill of the Nigerian people. It is very reckless, it operates on impunity and it doesn’t bother whether what they are doing has any implications on the citizens of the country,” he said.

Dalung stated that Tinubu's 2023 vote count should not be taken as a sign of solid support for the next election. He claimed that about 5.5 million of Tinubu’s 8.7 million votes came from the North, mostly due to Buhari’s political influence and the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC.

He believes that this support has faded as northerners now suffer the most from the administration's decisions. “So, Tinubu does not even have the 8.7 million votes. So, we would rather have 3.7 million votes,” Mr Dalung said.

He pointed out that the anger against the government goes beyond party lines. “This anger is not the anger of the political parties, but it is the anger of Nigeria. People who will decide and determine,” he said.

Dalung also mentioned the 2026 Osun governorship election as proof that having incumbents and money does not guarantee winning. He noted that many governors, ministers, and APC leaders campaigned in the state but could not secure victory for their party.

“Almost 20-something governors were in Osun. About 15 or 16 ministers, the national chairman, were there. All the bullion vans that were rolling into Osun could not deliver the APC. And it wasn’t like the opposition in Osun was organised,” he said.

The APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, lost the August 15 election to the sitting governor, Ademola Adeleke. This result has fueled discussions about the ruling party's strength before 2027.

Dalung believes that the death of Buhari has changed the political landscape as we head towards 2027. He also mentioned the detention of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai as another issue that could affect the ruling party's support.

“For those of you who are thinking what has changed between 2023 and 2027, Buhari is dead. There’s a huge difference. He’s no longer around,” he said.

He also claimed that Tinubu has not effectively taken on Buhari's political legacy. He referred to how the former president’s burial was handled. “On the day of the burial of Buhari, he handed over the legacies of Buhari to Atiku, because he went and occupied Buhari’s house and prevented Atiku from coming even close. They stopped Atiku about a kilometre away from Buhari’s house,” he said.

Dalung believes these events have opened doors for opposition figures to win over voters who once supported the APC. He supports former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi as the best opposition pair to lead after the 2027 elections.

“Abubakar Atiku and Amaechi are the most experienced politicians and competent enough to be trusted with the management of Nigeria in 2027,” he said. He described Atiku as a seasoned politician who understands Nigeria's political system after serving as vice president for eight years.

Dalung added that Amaechi, active in Nigerian politics since 1999, has enough experience to help lead the country. He noted that Atiku has created a 10-point agenda that looks at the economy, insecurity, youth unemployment, agriculture, and national unity.

Atiku is the presidential candidate of the ADC, while Amaechi is his running mate. The ADC is becoming a key platform for opposition forces aiming to challenge Tinubu in 2027.