Understanding El Niño and Its Impact on Nigeria

By mid-morning in many Nigerian cities, traders find shade under umbrellas, commercial motorcyclists hunt for cover, and classrooms turn uncomfortable as temperatures soar.

The heat has become a hot topic, with some blaming it on ozone layer depletion and others questioning whether the weather is getting more extreme.

But scientists are warning about another climate issue that could worsen heat and change weather patterns worldwide: El Niño.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says the phenomenon is getting stronger and could peak at the end of 2026, with effects lasting into 2027.

Meanwhile, a report by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab predicts that Nigeria could see 31,400 more heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027.

This raises concerns about what El Niño means for Nigerians, whether these deaths are unavoidable and how people can lower their risks.

Nigeria’s experience with extreme weather

Nigeria has faced climate-related emergencies before.

From floods that displace communities and ruin livelihoods to ongoing droughts in the north, the country has felt the human and economic toll of extreme weather.

The 2022 floods affected millions across Nigeria, exposing the vulnerability of homes, farms, roads, and essential services.

Nigeria also deals with recurring droughts in the northern regions, where long dry spells threaten water availability, farming, and livestock.

These experiences provide important context for the latest warning about El Niño. The worry is not that it will cause past disasters again, but that it could increase existing climate risks, especially if extreme heat combines with unreliable electricity, limited water access, and stretched health services.

For a country already facing these challenges, the question is whether lessons from past emergencies can improve preparation for the future.

What is El Niño?

El Niño, which means "little boy" in Spanish, is a natural climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming changes atmospheric circulation and moisture patterns, affecting weather conditions worldwide.

Though it starts in the Pacific Ocean, its effects can be felt everywhere. Changes in atmospheric patterns can lead to higher temperatures in some areas, drought in others, and heavier rainfall in different regions.

El Niño is part of a broader climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions.

La Niña is linked to cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same part of the Pacific, while neutral conditions occur when neither warming nor cooling dominates.

This phenomenon happens naturally, usually developing every two to seven years. Individual events can last up to 18 months, though their duration and strength can vary.

El Niño can temporarily raise global temperatures, adding to warming already caused by climate change.

The ozone layer is a different matter. It absorbs much of the sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation, but its depletion does not explain the current El Niño.

Why is El Niño attracting attention now?

The current El Niño has raised global concern because scientists expect it to strengthen considerably in the coming months.

According to the WMO’s latest ENSO update, the phenomenon is firmly established and likely to strengthen towards the end of 2026 before hitting its peak, with possible impacts lasting into early 2027.

Concerns have grown after the Climate Impact Lab released a report estimating that 451,000 more heat-related deaths could happen globally between June 2026 and February 2027 compared to an average year.

Nigeria is among the countries facing the highest estimated death tolls, with 31,400 additional heat-related deaths expected between September 2026 and February 2027.

However, these numbers are projections, not a guarantee of death tolls. They estimate extra deaths that might occur under expected temperature conditions instead of historical averages. The researchers also believe early action could significantly lower the projected impact.

How could El Niño affect Nigeria?

Although El Niño starts in the Pacific, past events show it can influence weather conditions across Africa, including West Africa. But its effects in Nigeria are not always the same.

Weather patterns differ across Nigeria’s dry northern states, central savannah regions, and humid southern coast. So one area might have unusual dryness while another sees above-normal rainfall.

Nigeria’s weather is influenced by several systems, including the West African monsoon, Atlantic Ocean conditions, and regional atmospheric circulation. These elements determine when and where rain falls, how long dry spells last, and how temperatures change throughout the year.

El Niño does not mean Nigeria will face nationwide drought, flooding, or extreme heat. Its effects depend on how it interacts with local weather conditions, making national and state-level forecasts essential.

Still, the predicted rise in heat is a serious concern.

For many Nigerians, extended high temperatures could make daily life tougher, especially in cities already battling unreliable electricity, overcrowded housing, and poor urban planning.

Buildings, roads, and concrete surfaces soak up heat during the day and release it slowly at night, keeping temperatures high after sunset. This can lead to heat stress, especially for those working outdoors or living in poorly ventilated homes.

Extreme heat also raises the risk of dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heatstroke. It can worsen existing health issues, including heart, lung, and kidney diseases.

Agriculture could face difficulties too.

Long dry spells may reduce soil moisture, lower crop yields, and increase pressure on livestock and water resources. For families already dealing with high food prices, less agricultural production could worsen food insecurity.

Where heavy rainfall happens, flooding may damage homes, roads, and farmland, contaminate water supplies, and disrupt access to healthcare and other essential services.

The WMO has stressed the need for regional and national forecasts because seasonal outlooks indicate the likelihood of broader conditions rather than predict individual weather events.

Is Nigeria prepared?

The answer is tricky.

Nigeria has made some preparations for climate-related health emergencies.

In 2025, the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare published the country’s first Climate Change and Health National Adaptation Plan (2025, 2030), aimed at strengthening disease tracking, health facilities, and emergency readiness.

There is also a broader National Adaptation Plan, while the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) issues seasonal forecasts to assist with planning.

But having policies does not mean people are safe when extreme heat hits. Nigeria’s electricity and healthcare systems show some gaps.

A 2025 BudgIT assessment of 5,099 primary healthcare facilities found that only about 51 percent had electricity, and 38 percent didn’t have water access. Shortages of healthcare workers make it harder to respond during climate emergencies.

These issues become crucial during long heat spells.

Electricity helps health facilities provide essential services and allows families to use fans and other cooling options. Without steady and affordable power, both healthcare providers and residents have fewer ways to deal with rising temperatures.

How can Nigerians protect themselves?

While individuals can’t stop El Niño, they can take practical steps to reduce their exposure to extreme heat and other weather dangers.

During hot periods, people should drink water regularly, wear light clothing, and seek shade or cool, ventilated spaces whenever they can. If work allows, strenuous outdoor tasks should be minimized during the hottest times of the day.

Employers should also provide access to drinking water, rest breaks, and shade for workers exposed to heat. Families should watch out for children, older relatives, and those who may not recognize or respond well to heat-related illness.

Signs like headaches, dizziness, weakness, and nausea may signal heat exhaustion. Confusion, seizures, or loss of consciousness after heat exposure can indicate heatstroke, which is a medical emergency needing immediate help.

In areas with water shortages, households should store drinking water in clean, covered containers and follow public health advice to make unsafe water safe to drink. Water conservation is vital, but it should not compromise drinking, cooking, and basic hygiene needs.

When heavy rainfall or flooding is expected, residents should heed official warnings, keep drainage channels clear where safe, and avoid walking or driving through floodwater. Floodwater may hide open drains and other dangers and may be contaminated. People should move to safer places when authorities advise evacuation.

Households can also prepare for severe weather by keeping essential medicines, emergency contact details, important documents, and charged mobile phones handy. Residents should report dangerous situations to the right authorities and avoid relying on unverified social media messages for information about imminent risks.

Most importantly, Nigerians should pay attention to local forecasts rather than assume a global El Niño warning means every community will face the same conditions.