What Can We Learn from the US Midterm Elections?

Last week, the Republican Party lost the midterm elections in the US. This news might not seem surprising, but it highlights the challenging character of the current president. In the US, midterm elections often reflect how the sitting president is doing. The president's party has lost 19 of the last 22 midterm elections. With Mr Trump’s presidency being so controversial, it is hard to imagine a different outcome this time. Pollsters predicted this election result correctly.

What does this mean for democracy? Winston Churchill once said it is 'the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.' This is true in places like Serbia, Brazil, and Hungary. The Republicans will now have to deal with the legacy of Mr Trump. Part of this will involve managing the conflicts within the party. On one side, there is a lame duck president whose legacy potential candidates want to distance themselves from. On the other side, Mr Trump still has strong support among grassroots activists, giving him a say in party primaries. Ironically, during the run-up to Tuesday's vote, Mr Trump backed weak candidates, and his MAGA movement could not help them win.

The Democrats might find their win comes with challenges. They did not really win the midterms; Mr Trump, who had his lowest approval rating in 80 years at this time, lost. Now, a party struggling to find its voice after Joe Biden's failed re-election bid in 2024 suddenly finds itself leading America’s policy-making. Their majority in Congress is not large enough to override a presidential veto. Given how the party splintered after Kamala Harris’s loss to Mr Trump, the Democrats might tear themselves apart looking for solutions to America’s problems.

The party's slight move to the left could complicate things. Issues like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the rising cost of living are causing worry for many Americans. Although the US economy is growing, inflation is outpacing wages. This raises questions about how to help the people without slowing down economic growth. On top of this, America faces challenges in a world that has changed a lot.

Donald Trump is not to blame for China becoming a rival to America. The idea of a peaceful global order after the Cold War always seemed unrealistic. Meanwhile, Russia's influence has dropped significantly, but it still seeks to assert itself. America needs to rethink the global institutions that have managed world affairs since 1945. With China gaining political and economic power, this change is more urgent.

Mr Trump managed to shake up these institutions. America must lead the way in fixing and rebuilding them. Russia cannot do this, nor can China or the EU. Middle powers are not in a position to help either. The US has spent time considering possible changes within organizations like the United Nations and NATO. Whatever the solutions may be, lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China's threats towards Taiwan show that a stable world cannot rely on strongmen.

If this is what we learn from Mr Trump and Binyamin Netanyahu’s unnecessary conflict with Iran, then the new goal should be to create coalitions that support individual rights over collective power while upholding universal human values.

This is the challenge for the post-Trump era. I doubt either party in the US, as they are currently structured, can meet it.